Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Gone Fishing

I played no poker over the holiday weekend. I actually did go fishing in the mountains with my dad. Great times.

This morning I decided to warm up with a little ring game action. I was slowly building up my starting buy-in when I got in over my head in one hand. I saw the 4-way flop for cheap with 45os. The flop came and gave me a gutshot straight draw with a T62. One guy bets out and I call, but the other guys all fold, so it is heads up. The turn comes down with an 8, and now I have a double belly gutshot (I could hit either a 7 or a 3). Same guy bets out and I re-raise him minimum. He thinks and calls. Well, the river blanks with an Ace and I am left with the worst hand possible. My opponent checks and I decide to try to buy the pot. I bet half the pot and he thinks a long time and finally calls with pocket queens.

So, I work hard for another half an hour to make back my loss at a tight table. I finally go up a few BBs and then decide to call it a morning and get ready for work.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

River Question

It is 0.05/0.10 NL and there are only three people sitting in on this hand. We all have larger than starting stacks, and I am in the SB with A6os. The button who has the largest stack and loves to bully, calls for 0.10. I raise to 0.40. BB folds and the button re-raises minimum to 0.70. I call. Normally the minimum raise would worry me, but I have watched this guy and he would normally push big time with any premium hand. He is probably just pumping up the pot since he has position and is setting me up to "make a play"

Flop comes 964 all diamonds. I hit middle pair. I bet out $1.50 into the pot of $1.50. Button calls. I don't like the all diamonds since I don't hold any and he must love it. Doesn't matter to him if he has a diamond, I am sure he will try to buy the pot if another one hits.

The turn comes and it is a 7c. No diamond, and I doubt he holds a 7, but who knows? I bet out $3.20 into the $4.50 pot. Button calls without hesitation.

The river comes a 2c. No more diamonds. I decide that the pot is nice sized and I do not want to give my opponent the opportunity to raise me all-in, so I check on the river. Now the button decides to make a move and bets $5.

Hmmm.... $5 into a $11 pot. There is the possibility that he had flopped the flush. There are also several crazy straight possibilities if he held 35, 58 or 8T. He also could have hit the 9 (or the 7), but I would have expected him to bet out to protect his top pair from the flush.

Anyway, I decide that if I call I would only have to win this bet 1 in 4 times to make it worth it ($5 to win $16). I eliminate the re-raise since he would fold hands I could beat and call with anything that beats me. Preflop, my gut told me he would try a move, and this may be it. Perhaps he reads me as having a single high diamond and I missed the board.

So, I call. Button shows Q6 (both clubs) for the same middle pair. I win $21 (including my last call) with my ace kicker.

Should I have called? Do you think I will win this pot at least 1 in 4 times? I do not think that pots will come this easily at the higher limits.

Anyway, my short 30 minute session gave me a quick profit of $15. After six days, my profit at 0.05/0.10 is up to $90. Not bad for about 8 hrs of play at such small limits.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

The Trap

Bwah ha ha (supposedly evil laugh). The perfect trap.

So, in my normal game of six handed 0.05/0.10 NL ring game, I set the perfect trap. I am in the BB with 4d5d and I check my option after a couple of limpers call from late position. The flop is 23Q with two diamonds. I have the open ended straight draw as well as the flush draw. My favorite hand. Sadly, the Q is one of the hearts, so I do not also have a open-ended straight flush draw (ok, that would be my real favorite hand).

So, I check (as I almost always do from the blinds on the flop) and one late position villain bets pot. I call his 0.35 bet. Why not raise? Well, I have seen this guy and he loves to keep firing with very little.

The turn brings the 10d and I get the flush. I check again, and the Villian bets pot again ($1), and I just smooth call. He is betting for me. Yippee. The river luckily doesn't bring another diamond, so I am golden. I check, and sure enough the villain fires another time, this time $2 into a $3 pot... so I finally spring my trap. I check-raise him to $6 (a raise of $4). He quickly calls and flips over J7... BOTH DIAMONDS. Doh! I lose to bigger flush.

So, what did I do wrong. Well, first of all, I never even considered what the villain had. I assumed he hit a pair on the flop and didn't even notice the flush. Obviously, he was semi-bluffing on the flop and continued his same betting pattern when he hit, and I was totally clueless.

How could I have played the differently. I am up for suggestions, but the first thing that I would point out is that on the turn when I made my flush, I shouldn't have played 45 like the nuts. It is far from it. I should have check-raised on the turn to see where I am. I would hope to just take it down there, or get a call and then make a value bet on the river if I think I am ahead. The turn check-raise would be less $ and should help define where I stand.

Another alternative that I like is just calling down his bets and never re-raising him. Since he is doing the betting for me, why give him the chance to re-raise. This will still give me a decent profit on my flush in most cases, and avoid the bigger loss when I am drawing dead.

Anyway, I ended the session up $9 (90 bbs), after winning several less interesting hands.

So far I am up $50 (500 bbs) in my micro limit cash game career.

Sunday, May 20, 2007

It's all in the math

I have to repeat this mantra when playing cash games. Sure, there are bluffs, deception, buying pots, and the regular hunt for the big fish, but in the long run, making the right decisions for the biggest pots is the most important part of the game. This includes knowing your outs, your percentage to win and your pot odds. You need to have a good read on your opponent to put all of this into practice, or you will just be playing your own cards.

So, today an interesting hand came up. This was after a good run for me where it appeared to the table that I was being reckless and getting lucky. I was getting lucky, but what most people don't figure into it is that the vast majority of these pots were built AFTER I got lucky and hit a miracle card. If you can keep the pots sizes small when you are drawing and then milk you opponents after you hit, you can draw to 4 outers and make it profitable. It also can set up plays in the future when you hit a monster and everyone assumes that you are chasing.

As an aside, chasing is only profitable when you can make the math work for you. Let's say that you have 4 outs to your gutshot straight draw. That means that the next card will help you only 1 times in 11. So, any bet that you call, you will have to win a pot that is 10x that bet or more and that does NOT include and future bets on your part.

Anyway, the hand that I had that was interesting is this...

I am dealt pocket tens in the small blind (0.05/0.10). I have a big stack, over $21. There are two late limpers, and I decide to just call and hope for a good flop. The BB checks.

The flop is AQ10 two hearts. I flop a set of tens. I love this flop. Someone with a strong ace will try to bet strong to chase off heart chasers and even if someone lucked out and flopped a straight, I still have outs to a full house.

So, I check and it is checked around to the button who bets $0.30 into a pot of $0.40. I re-raise to $1.20. The other limpers fold and the button re-raises all-in for $14.10 more.

A massive overbet for a pot under $2. It is impossible that he hit this flop AND had a flush draw since I am holding the 10h. It could be that he has a strong ace or even two pair and is protecting his hand. It is also possible that he flopped a straight, but that would be a horrible bet if he did. Would he really try that hard to chase someone off if he had the nuts?

Well, I am feeling lucky so I call and the villian shows J8 both hearts. He has double gutshot straight draw and the flush draw. He has 14 outs (I am holding one of his hearts), and I have 7 (then 10 on the river) outs to a boat or 4 of a kind. So I am 60% favorite. This is what cash games are about, I got all my money in a favorite. I call $14.10 to win pot of $30 when I am a 60% favorite.

Well, the turn comes a 9h and the villain turns his flush (and a straight, just to add insult). I still have 10 outs on the river to win, but the river is 6h to give both of us flushes, but his J bests my 10.

So, I lost $15.40 on the hand, but you can't win every 60%. I just have to be disciplined and make sure that the next time I risk 154 BB's that I have math of my side.

I ended the session down $3 for the day. A decent comeback, but to think that I had 60% equity in a $30 pot, that is about $18 less than I should have had on average.

REK and Sun Volt

Not together, but back to back nights at Lincoln Theater downtown.

I have seen Robert Earl Keen 5 or 6 times (concerts become a hazy memory for me). Friday night was kind of last minute thing, but my cousin and my L decided to go. Boy was it worth it. We got in kind of early and got a great spot near the band on the right side. Halfway through his opening song, the vocals went out of the right speakers. It took them FOUR SONGS to fix it. Nevermind, it was a great setlist and we throughly enjoyed the show. I know we all drank too much and I sang too loudly to the hits, but it was a great REK show.

Saturday night, Sun Volt headlined a benefit for Big Brothers, Big Sisters. Theyclosed off Cabarrus street and set up an outside stage. This was my first Sun Volt show, and I must say that I thought they were awesome live. Even though I love very little of their stuff, I thought they had a better live show than Wilco (the other face of Uncle Tupelo). Jay's vocals are biggest difference for me. It could be that the two times I have seen Wilco have been in these bug festival settings, and they didn't seem to project enough to involve the audience. I would like to see them in a more intimate setting some day.

Friday, May 18, 2007

First Ring Game

After a couple of years of exclusively playing sit-n-goes and a few mtt, I decided yesterday to to start playing some micro-limit ring games. My goal is to see if I can consistently show a profit and hopefully move up in limits as I improve my cash game.

I also have a secondary goal. That is to see if I can show more patience and make more higher percentage plays. Lately, these are my biggest shortcomings in tournament play. Perhaps without the pressure of increasing blinds, I can concentrate on the math. I also hope to target weaker opponents and avoid the stronger ones. This should be easier without the pressure of collecting all the chips at a table.

So, I chose for my first session a 0.10/0.25 NL six-handed table. I bought in for the maximum buy-in of $25. After 36 min, my stack was down to $22.50. I had been treading water for the most part. Up a couple of dollars, then down a couple. I was starting to loosen up my play when the following hand occurred. I was dealt 9h Th in 2nd position and open raised to 0.75. I hate to limp in very often and I like to disguise the strength of my hand, so I used a standard three-times the BB raise. I also felt that since I was fishing for a big hand, like a straight or a flush, perhaps I should start to build a bigger pot.

Well, the button and BB call my raise and we see a flop with 2.35 in the pot. The 7c 8h Ah flop is great for me. I now have both an open ended straight draw and a flush draw. Unless someone has a bigger flush draw, or flopped a set, I have 15 outs to a made hand. Without more information, I should be about a 55% favorite to make my hand. Against a flopped set, I would only be around 40% to win. Since no one re-raised me pre-flop, I can pretty much eliminate the AA. I also would not put either of my opponents on 77 or 88... except maybe 5% of the time. So, I am pretty sure that I am a favorite.

Well, the BB bets the flop at 2.00. Almost a pot sized bet. I have 21.75 behind and he has me covered, so I want to start building the pot now while I am still a favorite. I do find it strange that he open bets into a preflop raiser when an Ace flops. Perhaps he woke up with a strong ace in the BB and is seeing if I have high pocket that may be dominated.

Anyway, I raise to 8.00. A bigger raise than normal, but I want it to look like I hate early position preflop callers who open bet the flop. Or maybe, I just want it to look suspicious like I don't want a call. (Incidentally, this is something that I truly hate with a passion. It is a weak play. If you really think you out-flopped a pre-flop raiser, why not let him do some of the betting for you?) Anyway, the button makes a very curious and surprising call and then the BB jams it up to $24.

Well, now warning bells are going off in my head. Did the BB wake up with a monster? If he has a flopped set, he is a 60% favorite. Maybe he has two pair, then we are pretty much a coin toss. Worse case scenario is that he has a higher flush draw, then I am only 33% to win.

Additionally, the button still concerns me. He smooth called a raise and a re-raise on the flop. Maybe he has a bigger flush draw. If I am up against a flush draw and some kind of flopped set, then I am drawing thin. Maybe 15% or less.

Well, the pot now has $42 and I need to call with $13.75. That gives me great odds. The worst case scenario is that the last one I listed and that would require the button to call with his last $8. That would make a $50 pot for me to win on a $13.75 dollar bet. Not quite the odds that I would want if I am drawing only to a straight draw.

Well, I decided that I am more likely around 40% to win the pot, so I make the call. The BB also quickly calls... doh!

We flip over the cards and the BB shows AK (no hearts) and the button shows A2 (no hearts). Wow. BB really went to town with TPTK, and what the hell was the button thinking? Gotta love micro limits. Anyway, now I see that I am 59% to win this pot. This is what cash games are about.

So, the turn and flop come Qd and 6s. I river the nut straight. The outcome is meaningless. The process is key. I doubt I can coax anyone with TPTK to put in all their chips on that flop at higher levels, but it sure felt good.

So, first day at the micro limit ring game. Cashed in up $32.