It's all in the math

I have to repeat this mantra when playing cash games. Sure, there are bluffs, deception, buying pots, and the regular hunt for the big fish, but in the long run, making the right decisions for the biggest pots is the most important part of the game. This includes knowing your outs, your percentage to win and your pot odds. You need to have a good read on your opponent to put all of this into practice, or you will just be playing your own cards.

So, today an interesting hand came up. This was after a good run for me where it appeared to the table that I was being reckless and getting lucky. I was getting lucky, but what most people don't figure into it is that the vast majority of these pots were built AFTER I got lucky and hit a miracle card. If you can keep the pots sizes small when you are drawing and then milk you opponents after you hit, you can draw to 4 outers and make it profitable. It also can set up plays in the future when you hit a monster and everyone assumes that you are chasing.

As an aside, chasing is only profitable when you can make the math work for you. Let's say that you have 4 outs to your gutshot straight draw. That means that the next card will help you only 1 times in 11. So, any bet that you call, you will have to win a pot that is 10x that bet or more and that does NOT include and future bets on your part.

Anyway, the hand that I had that was interesting is this...

I am dealt pocket tens in the small blind (0.05/0.10). I have a big stack, over $21. There are two late limpers, and I decide to just call and hope for a good flop. The BB checks.

The flop is AQ10 two hearts. I flop a set of tens. I love this flop. Someone with a strong ace will try to bet strong to chase off heart chasers and even if someone lucked out and flopped a straight, I still have outs to a full house.

So, I check and it is checked around to the button who bets $0.30 into a pot of $0.40. I re-raise to $1.20. The other limpers fold and the button re-raises all-in for $14.10 more.

A massive overbet for a pot under $2. It is impossible that he hit this flop AND had a flush draw since I am holding the 10h. It could be that he has a strong ace or even two pair and is protecting his hand. It is also possible that he flopped a straight, but that would be a horrible bet if he did. Would he really try that hard to chase someone off if he had the nuts?

Well, I am feeling lucky so I call and the villian shows J8 both hearts. He has double gutshot straight draw and the flush draw. He has 14 outs (I am holding one of his hearts), and I have 7 (then 10 on the river) outs to a boat or 4 of a kind. So I am 60% favorite. This is what cash games are about, I got all my money in a favorite. I call $14.10 to win pot of $30 when I am a 60% favorite.

Well, the turn comes a 9h and the villain turns his flush (and a straight, just to add insult). I still have 10 outs on the river to win, but the river is 6h to give both of us flushes, but his J bests my 10.

So, I lost $15.40 on the hand, but you can't win every 60%. I just have to be disciplined and make sure that the next time I risk 154 BB's that I have math of my side.

I ended the session down $3 for the day. A decent comeback, but to think that I had 60% equity in a $30 pot, that is about $18 less than I should have had on average.